O Brasil está doente. Sofre de doenças múltiplas, todas de ordem ética, moral, política, institucional e comportamental. No entanto, não padece de nenhum mal de ordem financeira e ainda não apresenta quadro de metástase.
Samuel Hanan
Para compreender como o gigante chegou a esse ponto, é preciso olhar para trás e analisar o passado não muito distante. Nos últimos 35 anos, o país elegeu democraticamente, pelo voto popular, cinco presidentes da República. Dois deles, Fernando Collor de Mello e Dilma Rousseff, sofreram impeachment por corrupção ou improbidade. Nesse período, o país teve também dois presidentes (Collor e Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) investigados, denunciados, condenados e presos. Um vice-presidente, Michel Temer, alçado à Presidência pelo impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, foi detido para prestar depoimento na Polícia Federal, e o último presidente da República, Jair Bolsonaro, foi investigado, denunciado, tornado inelegível e responde a processo no Supremo Tribunal Federal, com possibilidade de ser preso. Dos seis presidentes empossados nos últimos 35 anos, apenas dois, Itamar Franco – que assumiu com o afastamento de Collor -e Fernando Henrique Cardoso – que governou por dois mandatos consecutivos -, não tiveram problemas com a Justiça.
O problema se repetiu no Legislativo, pois três ex-presidentes da Câmara dos Deputados foram presos, todos envolvidos com casos de corrupção: Eduardo Cunha, João Paulo Cunha e Henrique Eduardo Alves. Um quarto, José Genoíno, foi condenado e preso em razão do escândalo do Mensalão, embora sem relação à sua atividade como presidente da Câmara, mas como deputado, e depois teve a pena extinta.
Nessas três décadas e meia o Brasil foi comandado por políticos de quatro partidos diferentes, de distintos espectros ideológicos: PT, PSDB, PMDB e PL. Com os dois primeiros mandatos de Lula e o terceiro em andamento (10,5 anos) e com o mandato e meio de Dilma (5,7 anos), o PT acumula o mais longo período de governo, 16 anos até agora, o correspondente a 47,5% desse período histórico. O segundo partido com mais tempo no poder é o PSDB (22,88% do total), com os dois governos de FHC. Já o PMDB governou o país por 4,4 anos, sendo dois anos com Itamar Franco e 2,4 anos com Michel Temer, ambos complementando o mandato por afastamento dos presidentes. E o PL governou por quatro anos, no único mandato de Jair Bolsonaro.
As últimas eleições, em 2022, confirmaram o quadro de um Brasil dividido e registraram amplo protesto dos eleitores. No segundo turno, o vencedor, Lula, teve 38,08% dos votos; o perdedor, Bolsonaro, recebeu 36,74%, e abstenção, votos brancos e nulos somaram 25,18% (isto é, mais de um entre quatro brasileiros mostrou não querer nenhum dos candidatos).
Para além disso – e do que a população consegue enxergar -, há uma crise velada entre os poderes. A Constituição diz que os três poderes da República – Executivo, Legislativo e Judiciário – são autônomos e independentes, porém os fatos atuais sugerem desrespeito a esse preceito. Competências vêm sendo questionadas e apontadas como interferências entre eles.
O descrédito da população na classe política não é sem motivo. A falta de comprometimento com a verdade vem sendo a tônica no comportamento de muitos dos nossos líderes políticos, incluindo chefes dos poderes.
Durante as campanhas eleitorais, as promessas são infinitas, mesmo aquelas sabidamente impossíveis de serem cumpridas, e, apesar disso, repetidas desavergonhadamente. Merece reflexão o pensamento do economista e filósofo político norte-americano Thomas Sowell: “O fato de tantos políticos bem-sucedidos serem mentirosos e descarados não é apenas uma reflexão sobre eles, é também uma reflexão para nós. Quando as pessoas querem o impossível, apenas os mentirosos podem satisfazê-los”. Isso diz muito sobre a sociedade brasileira.
Nas campanhas presidenciais tornou-se comum os candidatos, na propaganda do Horário Eleitoral Gratuito e nos debates na televisão, fazerem muitas promessas. Nada incomum também o vencedor, durante o mandato, ignorar quase integralmente o que foi dito na campanha, sem constrangimento. Tudo fica mais grave porque grande parte da imprensa não noticia e não cobra, deixando o governante em posição muito confortável.
Pode parecer exagero, mas não é. Entre as clássicas promessas não cumpridas está o compromisso de unir o Brasil e governar para todos os brasileiros. O que se vê, anos após a posse, é o aprofundamento da divisão do país, inclusive com incentivos ao comportamento de ódio.
Outro exemplo é o posicionamento contra a reeleição, dito em palanque, porém desmentido na prática. Poucos meses depois de empossado, o eleito muda o discurso, sob a justificativa de que não pode permitir que a direita ou a esquerda volte ao poder e destrua todo o que foi feito. Assim, há 28 anos o Brasil mantém o instituto da reeleição, instrumento que contamina qualquer mandato.
Os candidatos também prometem não aumentar impostos nem criar novos tributos. Garantem que os recursos existentes são suficientes e creditam a situação à má gestão e incompetência do gestor anterior. No entanto, depois da posse os gastos do governo são aumentados e mantêm-se ou se acrescem privilégios como forma de governar e garantir apoios para a reeleição. Com déficits maiores, a saída mais fácil é aumentar os impostos, medida muitas vezes acompanhada de novos tributos.
A conta, é claro, será paga pela população. O Brasil terá maior alíquota mundial de tributos sobre o consumo de bens e mercadorias, mas o apetite é insaciável. Recentemente, novos tributos foram criados sob a forma de impostos seletivos (impostos do bem) e a carga tributária sofreu aumento superior a 2 pontos percentuais, garantindo mais de R$ 240 bilhões por ano. A justificativa, agora, foi que é necessário tributar os ricos, os super-ricos e o pessoal da Faria Lima (personificação do mercado financeiro). Agora, surge nova denominação – ‘o pessoal da cobertura’ – alimentando ainda mais a divisão do país, o discurso de pobres versus ricos. O governo atual alardeia não ter sido eleito para governar para os ricos, e sim para reduzir a fome, a pobreza e melhorar a qualidade de vida dos 50% mais pobres. Justifica que os ricos recebem benefícios fiscais (gastos tributários da União) de R$ 800 bilhões/ano, lançados como “investimento”, enquanto o valor do Bolsa Família – total de R$ 180 bilhões – fica na rubrica de “despesas” e precisa ser cortado para reduzir o déficit fiscal.
Coincidência ou não, o presidente da República não revela a fonte dos R$ 800 bilhões em renúncias fiscais. A Secretaria da Receita Federal, por sua vez, aponta que corresponde a 5% do PIB, o que corresponderia a R$ 600 bilhões. A diferença, não se sabe.
Tampouco diz quais presidentes concederam mais benefícios fiscais, ou no seu linguajar, deram aos mais ricos e super-ricos. Mas isso os dados históricos registram. Os gastos tributários correspondiam a 1,47% do PIB ao final do governo de Fernando Henrique, em 2002. Quando Lula transmitiu a faixa para Dilma Rousseff, em 2010, esse valor representava 3,33% do PIB, ou seja, aumento de 1,86 ponto percentual, o equivalente a R$225 bilhões/ano. Ao final do governo Dilma, havia crescido mais 1 ponto percentual, correspondendo a 4,33% do PIB. No governo Bolsonaro o acréscimo foi de 0,32 p.p., fechando em 4,65% do PIB e, nesses dois anos do terceiro mandato do presidente Lula, houve crescimento de 0,35 p.p., com o montante representando 5% do PIB. O maior percentual histórico, portanto, foi registrado no atual governo.
É fato também que a carga tributária no Brasil teve aumento brutal a partir da instituição da reeleição para os cargos do Executivo. Em 1997, correspondia de 26% a 27% do PIB. Em 2024, já era 27% maior, correspondendo a 34,24% do PIB. Em 2025, deve superar 35,5% do PIB, e o governo quer mais para 2026, buscando dispor de um colchão de cerca de R$ 60 bilhões. Não é difícil imaginar que o objetivo final seja agradar setores já beneficiados – os modernos donatários do poder -, enquanto, em contrapartida, se distribui migalhas eleitorais aos brasileiros menos favorecidos.
Benesses de um lado, fracassos sociais de outro. Basta atentar para o mais recente estudo Atlas da Mobilidade Social, o qual mostra que apenas 1,8% das crianças pertencentes às famílias incluídas entres as 50% mais pobres do país têm chance de obter ascensão social e, quando adultas, se colocarem entre os 10% mais ricos.
O comprometimento do futuro de uma geração está anunciado, pois o levantamento também aponta que dois terços (66,6%) dessas crianças provavelmente permanecerão entre os 50% dos brasileiros mais pobres, na fase adulta.
A perspectiva não é nada boa quando se analisa o presente. O modelo de governo de coalisão naufragou. Transformou-se em um governo de cooptação, contaminado pela política do “é dando que se recebe”, e praticamente refém de um Congresso cada vez mais corporativo e alheio aos interesses verdadeiramente republicanos.
O Brasil é hoje um país doente. Por sorte, o mal ainda não contaminou todo o organismo institucional a ponto de levar à falência irreversível. A salvação ainda é possível, porém para evitar o pior há a necessidade de se recorrer, com urgência, a remédios que desagradam grande parte da classe política e governantes, a começar pelo fim da reeleição, imprescritibilidade dos crimes contra a administração publica, redução dos privilégios dos donos do poder e a revisão dos insuportáveis e inaceitáveis gastos tributários da união de 5% do PIB para no máximo 2%, redução que liberaria cerca de R$ 360 bilhões/ano para mitigar as brutais e intoleráveis desigualdades regionais e sociais.
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