Cortes subiram 20,84% no ano, maior alta desde 2019
Por Bruno de Freitas Moura – Repórter da Agência Brasil
Aumento no preço dos alimentos, notadamente das carnes, impactos do clima e a desvalorização do real ante o dólar são os principais fatores que explicam a inflação oficial de 2024 ter ficado acima do limite máximo da meta estipulada pelo governo.
O Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) divulgou nesta sexta-feira (10) que o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) fechou o ano em 4,83%, superando o teto da meta e inflação, de 4,5%.
Para apurar o índice, o IBGE colhe dados de 377 produtos e serviços, os chamados subitens, que são distribuídos em nove grupos. A maior pressão de alta de preços em 2024 veio do grupo alimentos e bebidas, que subiu 7,69%, o que representa um impacto de 1,63 pontos percentuais (p.p.) no IPCA.
Essa alta é a maior desde 2022, quando ficou em 11,64%. À época, a explicação foi o efeito de fenômenos climáticos, como o La Niña (resfriamento das águas superficiais de partes central e leste do Pacífico Equatorial e de mudanças na circulação atmosférica tropical, impactando temperatura e chuva em várias partes do globo) e reflexos da pandemia nas cadeias de produção. Em 2023, alimentos e bebidas subiram 1,03%.
Carnes
Ao analisar o comportamento dos produtos pesquisados, o IBGE identifica que a maior pressão de alta veio do item carnes. Em 2024, os cortes ficaram 20,84% mais caros, o que representa peso de 0,52 p.p. É o maior aumento desde 2019, quando subiram (32,4%). Em 2023, o preço das carnes recuou 9,37%.
Esse encarecimento final de 2024 contrasta com o comportamento dos preços no começo do ano, que caíram. Mas o repique de setembro a dezembro (+23,88%) foi suficiente para o ano fechar com alta.
“Essa queda do primeiro semestre foi mais que compensada pelas altas”, define o analista do IBGE André Almeida. Ele explica que há efeito direto de questões climáticas no comportamento do preço do alimento que vai ao prato do brasileiro.
“A gente teve uma forte estiagem, ondas de calor, seca em diversas regiões do país, o que intensificou os efeitos da entressafra, quando as pastagens ficaram ainda mais restritas”, diz.
“A gente teve, por conta do próprio ciclo da pecuária, um menor volume de animais para abates, o que reduz a oferta do produto para o consumidor final e acaba pressionando os preços”, completa a explicação.
Ao analisar especificamente produtos alimentícios, o IBGE identificou que as principais altas dentro do item carnes foram o contrafilé (20,06%), carne de porco (20,06%), alcatra (21,13%) e costela (21,33%). Esses subitens só perdem para o café moído (39,60%) e o óleo de soja (29,21%). Mesmo assim, as carnes influenciam mais o IPCA, pois têm maior peso na cesta de produtos do brasileiro, segundo metodologia do IBGE.
“A influência do clima está muito ligada à produção dos alimentos. Se chove muito ou fica muito seco, isso tudo compromete a produção”, aponta o gerente da pesquisa, Fernando Gonçalves.
Ao observar também os produtos não alimentícios, a gasolina – dona do maior peso na cesta de produtos pesquisada – subiu 9,71%, representando o impacto mais acentuado em todo o IPCA (representando 0,48 p.p.).
Câmbio
Almeida acrescenta que outro fator ajuda a explicar o IPCA fora da meta de 2024: o câmbio. Em 2024, o real viu o dólar subir 27% em 12 meses, terminando o ano negociado a R$ 6,18.
“O câmbio é um dos fatores que influenciam no comportamento dos preços de diversos produtos, desde alimentícios, com a questão da cotação de algumas commodities alimentícias em dólar” detalha ele, se referindo a mercadorias negociadas com preços internacionais.
O analista acrescenta que o real desvalorizado faz com que produtores prefiram destinar parte da produção para o exterior, uma vez que receberão as receitas em dólar valorizado. “Isso restringe oferta interna”, diz.
Almeida lembra ainda que o câmbio influencia o custo de produtos que possuem componentes importados. “Existem diversos mecanismos pelos quais o câmbio pode influenciar na inflação”, ressalta.
Ao longo de 2024, o país teve 11 meses com inflação positiva e um com deflação (queda de preços). Foi em agosto (-0,02%), influenciado pelo recuo na conta de luz e alívio dos alimentos no bolso. O maior resultado mensal foi em fevereiro (0,83%), puxado pela educação, por causa do reajuste de mensalidades.
Foto: © Joédson Alves/ Agência Brasil
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