Economista da Serasa Experian analisa o agravamento do cenário de dívidas e fala sobre a perspectiva diante do quadro macroeconômico;
• Em maio, o pico registrado representou um terço dos negócios existentes no país.
POR MARIA SOSSMEIER – IMPRENSA SERASA (serasaexperian@edelman.com)
A inadimplência das empresas voltou a bater recorde no mês de maio, pelo quinto mês consecutivo. Ao todo, 7,7 milhões de empresas encerraram o período com contas em atraso, representando 32,8% do total de empresas ativas no Brasil e superando os 7,5 milhões registrados em abril. As informações são do Indicador de Inadimplência das Empresas, elaborado pela Serasa Experian, primeira e maior datatech no país. Confira a análise dos últimos 12 meses nos gráficos abaixo:
O valor consolidado das dívidas chegou a R$ 182,4 bilhões, o maior montante registrado desde o início da série histórica do indicador, em março de 2016. Em média, cada CNPJ apresentou, aproximadamente, 7,3 contas negativadas no mês, com um ticket médio de R$ 3.255,40. Veja os dados da evolução no gráfico abaixo:
Segundo a economista da datatech, Camila Abdelmalack, o cenário atual de inadimplência das empresas é ainda mais preocupante quando se observa o contexto da concessão de crédito. “As empresas que já estão endividadas enfrentam hoje um ambiente muito mais restritivo para obter novos financiamentos, tanto para capital de giro quanto para renegociação de passivos”, explica. “Diante do crescimento expressivo das dívidas, os credores estão mais cautelosos, dificultando a concessão de crédito mesmo para negociações. Muitas empresas estão tentando renegociar dívidas antigas, mas esbarram nisso, o que amplia o risco de permanência na inadimplência ou até de agravamento da situação”, completa a executiva da datatech.
Para os próximos meses, a economista alerta que o cenário da inadimplência pode se agravar diante de fatores que elevam a pressão sobre os custos operacionais das empresas. “No contexto internacional, se houver a aplicação dos 50% sinalizados pelo presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, sobre produtos brasileiros, existe o risco de que o Brasil adote medidas retaliatórias. Isso pode gerar um efeito cascata de encarecimento de insumos, impactando diretamente os custos de produção das empresas brasileiras, sobretudo aquelas que dependem de cadeias internacionais. Esse tipo de pressão inflacionária, em um cenário já marcado por juros elevados, tende a agravar ainda mais a situação da inadimplência no país”, avalia.
Segundo Camila Abdelmalack, um choque inflacionário nesse momento seria especialmente preocupante no atual contexto de juros elevados, hoje em15%. “Com o acesso ao crédito já limitado, uma alta na inflação pode levar o Banco Central a postergar eventuais cortes, dificultando ainda mais a recuperação das empresas”, explica.
Além do fator externo, a economista destaca um possível agravante interno: o aumento do IOF (Imposto sobre Operações Financeiras) sobre crédito empresarial. “Se isso ocorrer, teremos um encarecimento direto do financiamento produtivo, impactando especialmente as micro e pequenas empresas, que já enfrentam dificuldades para renegociar dívidas e manter o capital de giro. Um aumento de custo nesse ponto pode contribuir para a expansão da inadimplência”, conclui.
De fato, os pequenos negócios continuaram sendo os mais impactados pela inadimplência no país, segundo o indicador da datatech. Do total de 7,7 milhões de empresas com contas em atraso no período, 7,3 eram de micro e pequenos negócios, que concentraram 51,7 milhões de dívidas negativadas, somando R$ 164,1 bilhões. Já entre as empresas de maior porte, foram identificadas cerca de 32 mil médias e 23 mil grandes em situação de inadimplência.
De acordo com o indicador, o setor de Serviços concentrou a maior fatia das empresas negativadas em maio, respondendo por 53,7% do total. Na sequência, apareceram os segmentos de Comércio (34,1%) e Indústria (8,0%). As categorias agrupadas como “Outros”, que incluem empresas do ramo Financeiro e do Terceiro Setor, representaram 3,2%, enquanto o setor Primário completou a lista com 1,0%.
A maioria das dívidas foi inadimplida no segmento de “Serviços” (31,5%) seguido por “Bancos e Cartões” (20,9%). Veja, a seguir, o detalhamento deste recorte:
Entre as unidades federativas (UFs), o Distrito Federal (42,4%) liderou o ranking das maiores proporções de empresas inadimplentes em maio. Em seguida, ficaram o Pará (40,4%) e Alagoas (39,9%). Em números absolutos, São Paulo concentrou o maior volume (2.635.018) seguido por Minas Gerais (701.736) e Rio de Janeiro (694.981). Veja abaixo os dados em detalhes:
Para conferir mais informações e a série histórica do indicador, clique aqui.
Metodologia
O Indicador Serasa Experian de Inadimplência das Empresas contempla a quantidade de empresas brasileiras que estão em situação inadimplência, ou seja, possuem pelo menos um compromisso vencido e não pago, apurado no último dia do mês de eferência. O Indicador é segmentado por UF, porte e setor.
Foto: Marcos Santos/USP Imagens
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