Estimativa anterior era de 3,5%. Revisão ocorreu pela alta das commodities, queda cambial e segunda onda da Covid-19
Por Laísa Lopes/ Agência Brasil 61
O Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) revisou para 3,7% a alta da inflação brasileira em 2021, divulgada na visão geral da Carta de Conjuntura n° 49. Em dezembro do ano passado, a inflação para este ano tinha sido projetada pela instituição em 3,5%.
Com o avanço da pandemia, os preços internacionais das commodities aumentaram, a demanda pelo alimento domiciliar cresceu, o dólar ficou mais caro, houve alta internacional do valor do petróleo, que gerou aumento no preço dos combustíveis. Tudo isso fez com que a projeção dos preços administrados ficassem maiores para este ano.
Embora as expectativas para 2021 ainda sejam de desaceleração nos próximos meses, o elevado nível atual da inflação, combinado com o aumento do grau de imprecisão da economia brasileira devido às incertezas relacionadas à política fiscal, vem gerando revisões para cima das estimativas do IPCA para 2021.
De acordo com a técnica de Planejamento e Pesquisa do Ipea, Maria Andreia Lameiras, nos últimos doze meses a taxa de alimentação em domicílio medida pelo IPCA subiu 19% no país. “A tendência é que essa alta vá desacelerando. Esperamos que 2021 seja o ano de uma alta tão forte de alimentos quanto foi em 2020. Teremos uma produção maior, as expectativas de safra não só do Brasil mas do mundo como um todo estão muito boas.”
Mas a especialista reforça que essa baixa não significa que os alimentos ficarão mais baratos, alguns terão custo benefício, mas no geral, a conta do supermercado ainda será alta.
Em contraste, a consumidora Beatriz Rodriguez, de Goiânia (GO), reclama que a alta no preço dos alimentos domésticos básicos levou a família a buscar alternativas, trocou a carne pelo frango e faz um comparativo do quanto gastava no supermercado. “Antigamente, quando era só eu e meu marido, uma compra de R$400 reais dava para passar quase dois meses. Hoje em dia esse valor ficou bem diferente, R$400 reais compramos só o ‘grosso’, não inclui carnes, ovos, leite”, disse.
Inflação de serviços
É possível notar uma leve alta em relação aos serviços. No acumulado em doze meses, até janeiro, a inflação de serviços registrava variação de 1,5%, refletindo a queda de 5,7% dos serviços de transportes e alta de apenas 0,9% dos serviços pessoais e de recreação. Assim como o esperado, esses serviços foram os mais impactados pelo isolamento social, podendo ser visto nas deflações de passagens aéreas (-29%), hospedagem (-8,0%) e ingresso de cinema, teatro e show (-2,0%).
A especialista Maria Andreia Lameiras ressalta que a pandemia da Covid-19 influenciou na revisão da projeção da inflação, mas de forma decrescente. “Esperávamos um primeiro trimestre mais forte para a economia brasileira como um todo, especialmente no setor de serviços. Já estávamos imaginando que não teria esse crescimento mais expressivo no primeiro trimestre”, conclui.
Espera-se que o aumento da cobertura da imunização contra a Covid-19 contribua para a recuperação da demanda por serviços, principalmente os relacionados a cuidados pessoais e recreação, fazendo com que a inflação deste grupo encerre o ano de 2021 com alta de 3,6%, abaixo, portanto, da previsão anterior (4,0%).
Preços administrados
No caso dos preços administrados, a alta projetada agora de 4,4% superou a inflação estimada em dezembro de 2020, de 4%. Os preços administrados devem exercer maior pressão sobre a inflação neste ano. Parte dessa queda deve-se ao adiamento dos reajustes dos planos de saúde, dos medicamentos, adoção de home office, – que gerou a diminuição do uso de transporte público e queda nas receitas das empresas e reajustes maiores para 2021.
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