Medida é apontada como incentivo ao consumo e redução da desigualdade
por Bruno de Freitas Moura – Repórter da Agência Brasil
Especialistas e representantes do setor produtivo, incluindo os trabalhadores, classificam como avanço a aprovação, por parte da Câmara dos Deputados, do projeto de lei que isenta de cobrança de imposto de renda (IR) quem recebe até R$ 5 mil e reduz o valor cobrado dos empregados que têm salários de até R$ 7.350. 
A Agência Brasil consultou economistas e entidades empresariais e trabalhistas sobre o Projeto de Lei (PL) 1087/25, que segue para o Senado depois de ter sido aprovado por unanimidade na noite de quarta-feira (1º). Se todo o trâmite for concluído ainda este ano, com aprovação no Senado e sanção presidencial, o alívio no contracheque os trabalhadores vai vigorar já a partir de janeiro de 2026.
“A aprovação foi histórica e mostra que o tema da tributação mobiliza a sociedade e tem espaço político para avançar com mais propostas”, avalia o economista Pedro Rossi, da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp).
“Foi um passo gigantesco, uma vitória muito grande da classe trabalhadora”, comemora o presidente nacional da (Central Única dos Trabalhadores) CUT, Sérgio Nobre
Sessão da Câmara dos Deputados aprovou isenção do IR por unanimidade Foto: Lula Marques/Agência Brasil
Justiça tributária
O economista da Unicamp Luiz Gonzaga de Mello Belluzzo destaca que, além da questão arrecadatória, os sistemas de cobrança de impostos têm a função de atuar na distribuição de renda.
“[A aprovação] Assinala o caráter distributivo do sistema tributário”, diz à Agência Brasil. “O propósito principal é interferir na distribuição de renda, que, se deixada à própria sorte, vai ampliar a desigualdade”, avalia.
Belluzzo, que tem na carreira passagem por instituições públicas, privadas e por governos, aponta que outro efeito da isenção será sentido na economia.
“Necessariamente, você vai ter um impulso para o crescimento da economia”, afirma. Para ele, além de aumento do consumo, o país deve experimentar expansão de investimentos, o que mitigará efeitos inflacionários.
“Investimentos propiciam avanço na capacidade de produção”, completa. Dessa forma, a maior demanda por produtos seria acompanhada por aumento da produção, sem pressionar os preços para cima.
Respiro no bolso
O pesquisador Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) Pedro Humberto de Carvalho calcula que a classe média baixa deve ter respiro mensal de R$ 350 a R$ 550, em média.
“Um impacto que poderá ser gasto ─ essa folga no orçamento ─ com alimentação e serviços. Vai beneficiar positivamente a economia”.
Apesar disso, Carvalho reconhece que pode haver um impacto na inflação do setor de serviços. “Aumento de renda da classe média aumenta o consumo por serviços e, portanto, deve ter um impacto inflacionário”.
Pela medida, quem ganha R$ 5 mil, por exemplo, terá um refresco mensal de R$ 312,89 (ou R$ 4.067 ao ano).
Salários acima de R$ 5 mil até R$ 7.350 terão descontos proporcionais na parcela cobrada. Por exemplo, um empregado com remuneração de R$ 6,5 mil sentirá alívio mensal de R$ 113,18, segundo tabela elaborada pela empresa de contabilidade Confirp.
Atualmente, a tabela do IR prevê isenção apenas para quem ganha até R$ 3.036. De acordo com a Câmara dos Deputados, a isenção e redução de cobrança devem beneficiar diretamente 15,5 milhões de pessoas e levar a uma renúncia fiscal (imposto que não será arrecadado) de R$ 25,4 bilhões, cerca de 10% dos quase R$ 227 bilhões arrecadados com o tributo.
Taxação sobre os mais ricos
Para compensar a renúncia fiscal, o PL institui cobrança adicional para quem tem rendimento tributável acima de R$ 600 mil ao ano, que pode atingir apenas cerca de 141,4 mil contribuintes pessoas físicas de alta renda.
Atualmente, esse grupo seleto é submetido, em média, a uma alíquota efetiva de 2,5% de IR sobre seus rendimentos totais, incluindo distribuição de lucros e dividendos. Já trabalhadores em geral pagam, em média, 9% a 11% de IR sobre seus ganhos.
Seção de laticínios em supermercado de Brasília Valter Campanato/Agência Brasil
Menos endividamento
Para o economista Gilberto Braga, professor do Ibmec, qualquer alteração de tributação que disponibilize mais renda para a população é refletida na melhoria do poder de compra. Ele enfatiza também redução de endividamento das famílias.
“Esse dinheiro, sobretudo nas classes mais baixas do tabela do IR, certamente será direcionado para consumo e pagamento de dívidas”, prevê.
“Portanto, isso injeta dinheiro na economia, e a regularização do endividamento faz com que essas pessoas se credenciem a novos parcelamentos e financiamentos, podendo fazer com que a economia aumente o seu funcionamento para frente”, completa.
Para o especialista, o efeito inflacionário é secundário, mas existe. “Mas não se acredita que isso seja uma consequência colateral nesse momento”.
Pleito dos trabalhadores
O presidente nacional da CUT, Sérgio Nobre, lembrou à Agência Brasil que a ampliação da faixa de isenção do IR é um pleito antigo dos trabalhadores.
Nobre ressalta que isentar quem recebe até R$ 5 mil representa beneficiar a maior parcela da classe trabalhadora. “Vão sentir já, na hora que tiver um desconto menor ou não tiver o desconto no seu holerite a partir do ano que vem”. Ele comparou o benefício a um 14º salário.
“Para muitas categorias, isso vai representar um mês a mais de salário, é como se ganhasse o décimo quarto salário”, que será, segundo Nobre, poderá ser revertido em mais consumo, mais produção e mais emprego.
Apesar de apoio à aprovação, o representante da central sindical nota que não foi incluído no PL a isenção sobre participação de lucros e resultados (PLR), bônus que algumas categorias recebem.
“É uma nova luta que a gente tem”, antecipa, acrescentando bandeiras como tabela progressiva do IR (alíquotas maiores para maiores rendas), correção anual pela inflação e fim da escala 6×1.
Sobre a não inclusão da isenção do PLR e correção anual do piso para cobrança, Nobre entende que foi uma maneira de garantir a aprovação do PL de forma célere.
“Se não fosse votado agora, correria risco de não ter efetividade para o ano que vem, o que seria um prejuízo enorme para os trabalhadores”, conclui.
Trabalhadores e movimentos sociais fazem manifestação pelo fim da escala de trabalho 6 x 1 e pela taxação dos super-ricos, no Rio de Janeiro Fernando Frazão/Agência Brasil
Mais avanços
Trabalhadores e movimentos sociais fazem manifestação pelo fim da escala de trabalho 6 x 1 e pela taxação dos super-ricos, no Rio de Janeiro Fernando Frazão/Agência Brasil
O economista Pedro Rossi, da Unicamp, também aponta que o projeto aprovado na Câmara poderia trazer mais avanços.
“A taxação dos mais ricos é um avanço extraordinário, mas ainda é tímida diante das distorções tributárias no Brasil”, diz.
Ele cita que o repasse de dividendos, por exemplo, continua isento para quem recebe menos que R$ 50 mil mensais. O economista cobra também a criação de novas alíquotas de IR para faixas de renda mais altas, “além da necessidade de reduzir os impostos indiretos sobre bens e serviços e compensar com a taxação de renda e patrimônio”.
Rossi defende que as propostas de correção das distorções tributárias “podem vir associadas a mais gastos públicos com saúde e educação e até mesmo agenda climática”.
O pesquisador do Ipea Pedro Humberto de Carvalho lembra que o Brasil é um dos poucos países do mundo que ainda não tributam dividendos de forma geral.
“Com esse PL, vai haver uma tributação baixa, mas efetiva dos dividendos”.
Na análise dele, o pequeno investidor do mercado financeiro que recebe dividendos e pequenos empresários, que têm uma empresa pequena com a margem de lucro baixa, não terão os dividendos afetados.
“Serão [afetados] realmente os super-ricos, quem tem renda acima de R$ 100 mil por mês. Apesar de o PL prever renda acima de R$ 50 mil, esse grupo nessa faixa já paga imposto de renda”, projeta o pesquisador do instituto ligado ao Ministério do Planejamento e Orçamento.
Setor produtivo
O economista-chefe da Confederação Nacional do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo (CNC), Fabio Bentes, informou à Agência Brasil que a entidade classifica a ampliação da isenção do IR como positiva e socialmente justa, “pois beneficia a população de menor renda e observa a capacidade econômica do contribuinte”.
No entanto, a CNC manifestou preocupação em relação ao financiamento dessa medida. A entidade tem posição contrária à tributação de empresas, sem medidas compensatórias. “Isso poderia aumentar a carga tributária total, penalizar pequenos empresários que dependem desses lucros como renda familiar e incentivar a informalidade”, defende.
A CNC aponta que o Brasil já possui uma das cargas tributárias mais elevadas entre os países em desenvolvimento, concentrada no consumo e, para a confederação, “a tributação de dividendos agravaria esse cenário”.
Para a CNC, ampliação da isenção do IR deve ser “acompanhada de ajustes que não prejudiquem a competitividade das empresas nem aumentem a carga tributária sobre o setor produtivo”.
Correção da defasagem
O diretor de Economia da Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI), Mário Sérgio Telles, assinala que o setor industrial tem posição favorável à isenção que, segundo ele, corrige anos de defasagem.
“As pessoas começaram a pagar mais imposto de renda, não porque estavam subindo na escala de rendimento, mas simplesmente porque os rendimentos eram corrigidos pela inflação, e a tabela não era corrigida no mesmo ritmo”.
Ele avalia que a menor cobrança de imposto, caso vire lei, será incentivo à demanda. “Pessoas nessa faixa de rendimento tendem a ter uma propensão a consumir maior”.
Dessa forma, a CNI adverte que, caso o país conjugue outras formas de incentivo ao consumo, como gastos públicos, corre-se o risco de dificultar o processo de redução da inflação e, com isso, o Banco Central não avançar na redução dos juros.
A inflação oficial está em 5,13% ao ano, acima da meta do governo que vai, no máximo, a 4,5%.
“A gente entende que o processo de redução da taxa de juro tem que acontecer o mais rápido possível”, defende. “Já deveria ter iniciado”.
Para fazer a inflação recuar, o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) mantém a Selic em 15% ao ano desde junho. É o patamar mais alto desde julho de 2006 (15,25%).
Foto capa: Marcello Casal Jr
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