A taxa básica de juros subiu de 13,25% para 14,25%. Trata-se do maior patamar desde 2016
Por Marquezan Araújo – Agência Brasil 61
O aumento de um ponto percentual da taxa básica de juros (Selic) não é necessário para controlar a inflação e vai comprometer o ritmo de crescimento da economia. A avaliação é da Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI).
Segundo o presidente da entidade, Ricardo Alban, o atual nível da Selic implica taxa de juros real de 8,5% ao ano. Para ele, esse patamar já tem causado impacto significativo na economia, com uma desaceleração mais aguda do que a prevista, o que já seria suficiente para controlar a inflação.
A elevação da Selic foi anunciada na última quarta-feira (19) pelo Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central. A taxa básica de juros subiu de 13,25% para 14,25%. Trata-se do maior patamar desde 2016.
Conforme informações disponibilizadas pela CNI, com base na pesquisa Focus, do Banco Central, a inflação projetada para os próximos 12 meses passou de 5,49% para 5,23%. O principal motivo da alteração foi o PIB do último trimestre do ano passado, que cresceu significativamente abaixo do esperado.
A Confederação também considera que “o aperto monetário em curso já se traduz em aumento efetivo da taxa de juros dos tomadores de crédito. E, para a entidade, “juros mais altos significam crédito mais caro para as empresas e os consumidores.
Em relação às empresas, há uma inviabilidade de investimentos que dificulta o acesso a recursos de capital de giro. Com isso, as companhias crescem menos e criam menos empregos.
Por fim, a desaceleração da atividade econômica tende a ser potencializada pelo menor ritmo de expansão da política fiscal e pela desaceleração do mercado de trabalho em 2025.
2025 traz sinais desfavoráveis para indústria, comércio e serviços
Ainda de acordo com a CNI, a desaceleração da atividade econômica ficou mais forte no quarto trimestre de 2024, uma vez que a economia cresceu somente 0,2% em relação aos três meses anteriores. Além disso, foi registrado um recuo de 1% no consumo das famílias – o que não era percebido desde o segundo trimestre de 2021.
A Confederação destaca, ainda, que os primeiros dados de 2025 “não são animadores.” Depois de acumular queda de 1,2% entre outubro e dezembro do ano passado, a produção industrial se estagnou em janeiro de deste ano, na comparação com o último mês de 2024.
Já o volume de serviços teve uma redução de 0,2%, na mesma base de comparação. As vendas do comércio varejista restrito, por sua vez – que leva em conta vendas de automóveis e materiais de construção – registrou recuo de 0,1%, no mesmo período analisado.
Para a CNI, “esses dados do PIB, indústria, comércio e serviços evidenciam a forte desaceleração que está em curso na economia brasileira.”
Foto: Reprodução Marcello C asal Jr/Agência Brasil
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