Por Redação
Pesquisa da Agência Sudoeste – Jornalismo, Assessoria e Pesquisas/Jornal do Sudoeste sobre as intenções de voto para a Prefeitura de Tanhaçu, aponta que o empresário Valdemir Brito Aguiar Gondim (PSD) lidera em todos os cenários. No recorte da pesquisa estimulada, quando os eleitores entrevistados têm acesso aos nomes dos candidatos, considerando apenas os votos válidos, excluídos os indecisos, brancos e nulos, o candidato do PSD aparece com 42,22% das intenções de voto, seguido do atual prefeito e candidato à reeleição João Francisco Santos (Avante) com 30,12% e do Advogado Fellipe Lima Novais Aguiar (PT) com 27,66% das intenções de voto.
Na véspera da eleição, a vantagem do social democrata, de 12,1% sobre o segundo colocado, sinaliza, avaliam analistas políticos regionais, ouvidos sob reserva pelo JS, que a probabilidade de reversão do quadro, considerando principalmente que 75,18% dos eleitores entrevistados apontaram ter convicção do voto e que os que sinalizaram que poderão mudar o voto são apenas 6,96%, é muito pequeno.
No levantamento estimulado, quando a lista com os nomes dos três candidatos cadastrados no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral e aptos para participar do pleito é apresentada aos eleitores, Valdemir Gondim pontuou 36,78%, oscilando no limite da margem de erro entre 40,86% e 32,70%. Em segundo lugar aparece o prefeito e candidato à reeleição João Francisco (Avante) com 26,25% das intenções de voto, oscilando no limite da margem de erro entre 30,33% e 22,17%, seguido pelo Advogado Felipe Aguiar (PT) com 24,11%, variando entre 28,19% e 20,03%.
Nesse recorte da pesquisa os indecisos somaram 11,79% e os que votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto (disseram que não votariam em nenhum dos candidatos), se a eleição fosse hoje, somaram 1.07%.
Votos válidos
Ainda no recorte da pesquisa estimulada, considerando os votos válidos, excluídos os indecisos, brancos e nulos, que é como são computados os votos e proclamado o resultado pelo Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, o empresário Valdemir Gondim (PSD) aparece com 42,22% das intenções de voto, oscilando no limite da margem de erro entre 46,30% e 38,14%, seguido do prefeito e candidato à reeleição João Francisco (Avante) com 30,12%, oscilando entre 34,20% e 26,04%. Na sequência aparece o Advogado Felipe Aguiar com 27,66%, oscilando no limite da margem de erro entre 31,74% e 23,58%. João Francisco e Felipe Aguiar estão tecnicamente empatados no limite da margem de erro.
Fidelização do voto
Questionado sobre a convicção da intenção de voto, 75,18% disseram que já definiram em qual candidato vão votar, enquanto os que admitem a possibilidade de mudar de voto somaram 6,96%. Outros 10,54% admitem que talvez possam mudar o voto e 7,32% não souberam ou não responderam.
Rejeição
No recorte da pesquisa que mediu a rejeição dos candidatos, o mais citado foi o prefeito e candidato à reeleição João Francisco (Avante), com 39,46%, seguido do petista Felipe Aguiar com 18,21% e do socialdemocrata Valdemir Gondim com 15.89%. Os que não rejeitam nenhum dos três candidatos somaram 20,53%, enquanto 1,25% disseram rejeitar os três. Outros 4,64% não souberam ou não responderam.
Pesquisa
A pesquisa Agência Sudoeste – Jornalismo, Assessoria e Pesquisas/Jornal do Sudoeste foi realizada entre os dias 30 de setembro e 02 de outubro últimos. Foram realizadas 560 entrevistas pessoais e presenciais, com eleitores de Tanhaçu, maiores de 16 anos, usando questionário estruturado. A margem de erro é de 4,08 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos. O intervalo de confiança é de 95%, o que significa que a probabilidade de uma pesquisa ter os mesmos resultados se for aplicada com um outro grupo de pessoas, dentro do mesmo perfil de amostras e com a mesma margem de erro. A pesquisa está registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral sob o número BA-04948/2024.
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