A marca vai ser atingida 19 dias mais cedo em comparação com 2024
POR CÉSAR BRUNELI – ASCOM/ACSP (cbruneli@acsp.com.br)
O Impostômetro, painel instalado da sede da Associação Comercial de São Paulo (ACSP), localizado no Centro Histórico da capital paulista, registrará na próxima quinta-feira (3), às 17h17, que os contribuintes brasileiros já pagaram R$ 2 trilhões em impostos em 2025. O valor representa um aumento de 11,1% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado, quando o painel marcava R$ 1,8 trilhão.
Para Ulisses Ruiz de Gamboa, economista do Instituto de Economia Gastão Vidigal (IEGV) da ACSP, a marca será atingida 19 dias mais cedo devido a uma combinação de fatores que impulsionaram a arrecadação tributária. “Entre eles, destaca-se o aquecimento da atividade econômica”, afirma.
“A inflação também desempenhou um papel relevante, uma vez que o sistema tributário brasileiro é majoritariamente baseado em impostos sobre o consumo, que incidem diretamente sobre os preços dos bens e serviços”, completou Ruiz de Gamboa.
O economista também aponta outros fatores que explicam o crescimento da arrecadação: a elevação das alíquotas do Imposto sobre a Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS) e diversas medidas adotadas pelo Governo Federal, como a tributação de offshores, a reoneração dos combustíveis, mudanças na tributação de incentivos fiscais dos estados e a retomada do voto de qualidade do Conselho Administrativo de Recursos Fiscais (CARF).
Ainda de acordo com Ruiz de Gamboa, as perspectivas de crescimento da economia e, consequentemente, da arrecadação tributária em 2025 são mais modestas. Apesar de novos aumentos das alíquotas do ICMS e da inflação, que continuarão impulsionando a arrecadação, o crescimento econômico esperado para o ano é menor, devido principalmente à elevação da taxa de juros básica (Selic).
O painel físico do Impostômetro está localizado na Rua Boa Vista, 51, no Centro Histórico de São Paulo, próximo ao edifício-sede da ACSP. Além disso, os dados sobre a arrecadação de impostos nas esferas federal, estadual e municipal podem ser acompanhados, em tempo real, pelo site: impostometro.com.br.
Ga$to Brasil
A plataforma Ga$to Brasil, que compartilha o painel com o Impostômetro, tem como objetivo mostrar, de forma clara e acessível, como o governo utiliza o dinheiro público. Com dados visuais e de fácil compreensão, a iniciativa busca incentivar a participação da sociedade no acompanhamento dos gastos públicos. Até o momento, o Ga$to Brasil aponta que já foram gastos mais de R$ 2,6 trilhões.
Enquanto a arrecadação tributária já soma cerca de R$ 2 trilhões, os gastos não financeiros (primários) do setor público, em todas as esferas de governo, já ultrapassam R$ 2,6 trilhões no mesmo período, segundo dados da plataforma. Ou seja, o governo está gastando mais de R$ 550 bilhões além do que arrecada, mesmo sem incluir o pagamento dos juros da dívida pública. Esse descompasso evidencia um problema de solvência nas contas públicas.
Ruiz de Gamboa explica que: “O dado positivo é que a arrecadação está crescendo em ritmo mais acelerado do que no ano passado, os R$ 2 trilhões, por exemplo, só foram alcançados em 21 de julho de 2024. Isso pode refletir o aquecimento da economia, com mais empregos, mais consumo, investimentos e empresas com maior faturamento. Mas também é resultado da inflação e do aumento da carga tributária, com elevação de alíquotas e o fim de isenções fiscais”, diz o economista do IEGV/ACSP.
Foto: Marcelo Casal Jr./Agência Brasil
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