Foto: Reprodução
Por Redação
O empresário e candidato à Prefeitura de Maetinga pelo Avante, Sérgio Barros Moreira, lidera a corrida eleitoral e venceria a disputa se o pleito fosse agora, faltando um dia para a data da eleição, prevista para o domingo (6). É o que contata a pesquisa Agência Sudoeste – Jornalismo, Assessoria e Pesquisas/Jornal do Sudoeste ao analisar o panorama das eleições no município. O candidato do Avante tem 50,59% das intenções de votos, no cenário da pesquisa estimulada e atinge 57,29% dos votos válidos, quando são excluídos os indecisos, brancos e nulos.
Estimulada
No recorte da pesquisa estimulada, quando os nomes dos dois candidatos cadastrados no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral e aptos para disputar a sucessão municipal de Maetinga, Sérgio Barros (Avante) pontua 50,59% das intenções de voto, oscilando no limite da margem de erro (4,84 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos) entre 55,43% e 45,75%. A prefeita e candidata à reeleição Aline – Drª Aline – Costa Aguiar Silveira (PSD) recebeu 37,70% das intenções de voto, variando, no limite da margem de erro, entre 42,43% e 32,86%. Os indecisos (que responderam não saber ou não responderam) foram 11,01%. Os que disseram que não votariam em nenhum dos dois somaram 0,47% e 0,23% sinalizaram que votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto.
Ainda no recorte da pesquisa estimulada, mas considerando apenas os votos válidos, excluídos os indecisos, brancos e nulos, fica evidenciada a expressiva vantagem do candidato Sérgio Barros (Avante) e a probabilidade da vitória na eleição do domingo (6). Sérgio Barros aparece com 57,29% das intenções de voto, 14,58% a mais que a prefeita e candidata à reeleição Drª Aline, que ficaria com 42,71%,
Fidelização do Voto
A pesquisa Agência Sudoeste – Jornalismo, Assessoria e Pesquisas/Jornal do Sudoeste, também mediu a convicção do voto, questionando os eleitores maetinguenses se poderiam, até o dia da eleição, mudar o voto. 76,35% disseram que já definiram o voto e não há hipótese para mudar, enquanto 3,5% admitiram que podem sim, mudar a opinião e o voto. Os que disseram que talvez possam mudar o voto foram 9,13% e outros 11,01% não souberam ou não responderam.
Rejeição
O levantamento também mediu a rejeição dos candidatos. Nesse recorte, a prefeita e candidata à reeleição Drª Aline foi a mais citada, com 38,41%, seguida dos eleitores que disseram que não rejeitam nenhum dos dois candidatos com 25,76%. O candidato do Avante, Sérgio Barros, foi citado por 23,65% dos eleitores entrevistados. Os que rejeitam os dois, votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto somaram 2,11% (respectivamente 0,94% – rejeitam os dois, e 1,17% votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto).
Pesquisa
A Agência Sudoeste – Jornalismo, Assessoria e Pesquisas/Jornal do Sudoeste, realizada entre os dias 30 de setembro e 02 de outubro últimos foi feita presencialmente, por meio de questionários estruturados aplicados em pontos de fluxo e residências da sede e zona rural de Maetinga. O levantamento ouviu 400 eleitores cadastrados em Maetinga, maiores de 16 anos. A margem de erro é 4,84% para mais ou para menos. O nível de confiança de 95%, o que significa que a probabilidade de uma pesquisa ter os mesmos resultados se for aplicada com um outro grupo de pessoas, dentro do mesmo perfil de amostras e com a mesma margem de erro.A pesquisa está registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral sob o número BA-09333/2024.
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